ANC-DA marriage of convenience ‘GNU’ on shaky ground

From its formation, the incumbent South African national grand coalition, termed the ‘Government of National Unity’ (GNU), has been on shaky ground. Just over four months in and the GNU has already been dogged by internal disagreements, policy incoherence, and a corruption scandal.

This current state of affairs is ironic given that the GNU was founded on the premise of stabilising government.

The formation of the GNU immediately after the 2024 general election which saw the African National Congress (ANC) lose its majority for the first time came as a surprise to very few of us. The near-sole decision by the former ruling party to reach across the ideological divide and work with its long-time nemesis in the form of the Democratic Alliance (DA) instead of collaborating with its ideological cousins such as the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) or uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) was strategic and consequential.

In the DA, the ANC identified a partner who, like them, is closer to the political centre than its own ideological cousins and also a partnership which would be received favourably by international and economic forces. The insignificance of others or smaller parties that joined the GNU cannot even be understated.

When we all thought that this ‘marriage of convenience’ between the ANC and DA in the national sphere would trickle down to provincial level, events in Gauteng delivered the first real post-election shock. The ANC in Gauteng, spearheaded by Premier Panyaza Lesufi, vehemently opposed terms put forth to them by the DA, which led to a breakdown in relations and the failure to form a ‘government of provincial unity’ as done in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN).

This scenario displayed the extent to which a single disagreement between the ANC and DA could stabilise the work of government, and it must be heeded with regards to the GNU especially in light of the fiery disagreements over the recently signed BELA Bill. The contestations for metros in Gauteng between the ANC and DA should also be kept in mind.

READ MORE: GNU establishes task team to address BELA Bill concerns.

A fear that most people had about any national coalition is starting to be confirmed. That fear is that government ministers belonging to different political parties would use their positions to campaign to the detriment of service delivery. The robust public relations campaign of Patriotic Alliance leader Gayton MacKenzie in his role as sports minister points to this. DA ministers, not to be outdone, have been shamefully pursuing their own policy agendas through their own portfolios to the point of undermining President Cyril Ramaphosa.

Basic education minister Siviwe Gwarube of the DA has been outspoken in her vocal opposition to the BELA Bill despite the fact that her ministry will be responsible for its implementation, while her DA colleague and home affairs minister Leon Schreiber has been at the forefront of taking sole credit for recent security cluster crackdowns on illegal migrant activities.

The fact that the first corruption scandal in the GNU involves an ANC minister, Thembi Simelane, does the ANC no favours. Most of the GNU partners campaigned on the promise that they would eradicate the rampant corruption and mismanagement that has come characterise the ANC, so it does not look good when they are effectively the first GNU party to be plagued by something like this. It will be interesting to see how President Ramaphosa and the ANC respond to the Simelane scandal because if she is expelled or suspended it will be interpreted as an acknowledgement of her wrongdoing. However if no action is taken it will be interpreted as another instance whereby the ANC shields its members from accountability.

ALSO READ: Simelane tackles question of access to State Capture data.

The formation of a new parliamentary group, the Progressive Caucus, as a counterweight to the GNU, has been another interesting development. Championed by the MK and EFF, this alliance looks to reinvigorate the role of the opposition in South Africa.

The EFF and MK are in a significant position to deal damage to the ANC’s image over the fact that the latter would rather work with ‘counter revolutionary’ forces as opposed to tow the ideological line. Two obstacles stand in the way of the Progressive Caucus filling the space of an effective opposition. The first is that both parties are stocked by individuals whose character is as questionable as some ANC members. The case that Afriforum took to court regarding the appointment of MK parliamentary leader John Hlophe to the Judicial Service Commission (JSC) reminded us of that fact.

The admission of characters such as Lucky Montana and others to the MK fold add to the already prevalent distaste that most people have for the party over it being led by Jacob Zuma.

The second is the emerging rivalry between the EFF and MK, resulting from the fact that MK took the EFF’s place as the third-largest party nationally and the departure of former EFF deputy leader to MK. Animosity between the EFF and MK would not only be disastrous for the Progressive Caucus, but it would also be disastrous for the role that the parliamentary opposition has in holding the GNU to account. A fractured opposition is a threat to constitutional democracy itself.

The upcoming Local Government Elections in 2026 will be a major test for the GNU, especially when you consider that some GNU members have already begun campaigning. The ANC electoral conference in 2027 will be a bigger test, since the slate of ANC leaders who emerge from there might not favour a grand coalition which they deem contrary to the interests of the ‘National Democratic Revolution’.

For now, time will tell where the GNU ends up. In the meantime ordinary South Africans will just have to hope that service delivery is not compromised to a much larger degree than it already has been.

~ written by Neo Malebana, Public Administration student at the University of Pretoria.